• Stifel sees a 5% SP500 correction in Q1 for SP500.
• SP500 seen at roughly current levels by EOY = Active investing environment
• Slide 2 for long term forecast !!! (Note that Stifel forecast has been quite correct in the last 6-7 years in this bull market).
• Slides 6 on long rates and SP500.
• US 10 Yields seen at 2.96% eoy
Link to the Stifel Macro & Portfolio Strategy : Stifel 050118
I refer to messages posted on Nov.3rd and Nov.7th.
The aim was to « ..play a potential bounce from major index support. » (Post Nov.7th) by buying the DAX 2X ETF . And again the german index bounced from its 10250-10400 key support range with NO CLOSING below the 10250 point.
The very strong – Dax futures even touched levels below the 10000 bar yesterday morning, now at 10730 ! – and unexpected U-turn after Trump election seems overdone.
On a technical basis Dax is back near the top of its range – 10800/10830 closing basis– but nevertheless has the potential to go much higher IF it crosses the 10820-10850 on the upside on a closing basis with trend indicator (Daily MACD – bottom chart) crossing up at the same time . Initial targets would be then set at 11400 and 11800 for 5 to 10% gains by end of year . On the downside one should continue to watch the 10250-10400 levels with also the 200Days MA as support a bit lower.
As a reminder DAX is still down 0,50 % year to date (Eurostoxx50 -6%). Everything being equal most german (and european) companies might benefit from a weaker EUR / strong USD . The chances are great that Trump intended fiscal spending policy will be inflationary and drive the Fed to hike rates at a fastest pace than anticipated with positive impact for the USD / weaker EURO . A Euro in the 1 to 1,05 range would definitely not leave the european markets at current levels .
- No surprise hike by Fed.
- Three dissenters calling for a hike and arguing for a need to cooldown financial markets ( .. really?).
- 1% rally in principal Us indices and Gold . Nasdaq 100 and Composite at new all time highs.
- USD slightly weaker and bonds rallying as well at long end of curve.
Next focus for Us stocks is Q3 earnings season starting on October 10th. SP500 in 2120-2195 range are levels to watch for more down/upside. Nasdaq 100 crossing above previous highs (At the moment only a one day move ) and daily MACD crossing higher based on yesterday’s closing is giving a bullish technical signal … that is hard to justify on a fundamental basis at these levels/valuations. I would respect the bullish signal as long as 4790-4800 and more importantly 4650 are not recrossed on the downside.
… while only 22% chance are currently priced in and most principal US indices at or a few % from their all time highs . Back in june 60% likelihood was priced with US indices 3 to 6% cheaper …
Conclusion : Expect Volatility (the nice word for decline) IF Fed hikes rates tomorrow OR if they make a significant change on the hawkish side in their policy statement.
No, interest rates will not stay that low for ever : the dream bond investors have lived for years will turn into a nightmare if they are not prepared.
« Year-to-date, total returns in every area of the fixed income market are strong, really positive, whether it’s Treasuries, whether it’s high yield, whether it’s preferreds, emerging markets, everything’s done great, » … « That doesn’t normally happen. You don’t normally have long Treasuries producing double digit returns and high yield at the same time. »
Stop buy order at 2140 has been executed yesterday . A profit of 2% has been booked on this Short initiated on August 24th at 2185.
US equities initiated a big bounce caused by Fed Governor Lael Brainard in which she said that « it would be wise for the Fed to keep monetary policy loose » … just the contrary of what one of his Fed colleague stated last friday . These recent permanent contradictory statements by Fed members has caused volatility to increase in the last days . The Vix index oscillated between 12 and 21 in the last 3 sessions versus a 12-14 range for july and august . When VIX goes UP equities markets go DOWN …
Despite yesterday gains there are little reason for bullishness and i remain at best neutral at this point (SP500 at 2159).
Action : Given several factors that were already discussed (Risk on rates , relative high valuations, politics ,.. ) to which recent increased volatility and negative seasonality effect can be added, i am more confortable with equities portfolio being hedged at 50% minimum.
Should SP500 cross the 2100 level ( blue uptrend line) down i would advise to initiate new shorts / increase hedges with initial targets in the 2000 area. Levels : <2080 in session & <2100 closing basis .
- Pimco reduces portfolio duration and has cut Government bonds holdings.
- J. Dimon , JPM CEO : « Lets s just raise rates, …. the Fed has to maintain credibility « .
- Gundlach said in last week fixed-income investors should reduce the duration of their positions and move money into cash. “This is a big, big moment,” Gundlach said. “Interest rates have bottomed… I think it’s the beginning of something and you’re supposed to be defensive.”
The markets have disregarded for weeks multiple bad news : a sequence of 5 consecutive quarters of negative earnings, weak Q2 GDP and economic data in general especially in the manufacturing, risk a Fed move on the rates, risks linked to the election, … Intervention by Mr Rosengren, a Fed member, coming out on the need to hike rates seems to have been the trigger for a ugly friday on US markets.
SP500 closed at 2127,8 on friday down 2,45% on the day and 3% from its 2193 all time high. Two months of a mix of slight gains and range trading have been wiped out in a few hours . Last 2 months action took place with low volumes and declining momentum which i already mentionned a-was negative .Friday’s kind of move conforts me in my inclination of being always partially hedged after the markets had a substantial move on the upside (SP500 was up 20% since February and 10% since end of june) that looks overextended .
On July 29th i referred to 2135 key level as former resistance and new support. This support has been broken down (see purple ellipse). The move is bearish and barring a recrossing of 2135-2140 on the upside SP500 should be (much) weaker in the next days . Risk on the downside for the short term is at 2080-2100, an heavy activity zone (see parallel green lines) . The blue up trendline originated from February bottom is also a support level at around 2100. The 2080-2100 zone is of big importance and should these levels fail to hold,the immediate target would be the 2000 level.
ACTION : I place a STOP buy order at 2140 to book profit on the Short SP500 initiated on August 24th at 2185. So should the market recross the 2140 level on a closing basis the stance would be more NEUTRAL . If not i would stay short/hedge US markets.