WTI Oil (USD 70.71) : A correction has started …

Tensions in Middle East, tough US positioning versus Iran and Venezuela pushed oil prices further up in recent weeks .

Saudi announcement of a potential boost in oil supply is reversing price action and WTI @ USD 60-62 could be seen again very quickly .On top of this, extreme bullish positioning of futures traders might exacerbate the move down short term.



Gold Technicals : Bullish as long as price > USD 1280


Gold Price goes on with its Higher lows marks since 2 1/2 years.

Last week bottom in the 1280 area and bounce from there forms the 5th higher low (see green ellipse) since early 2016 and should this action continue , Gold price will test again the long term resistance in the USD 1360-1380 zone.

Bullish Long Term .

Bullish Short term as long as 1280 holds … for a retest of USD 1360.



EURUSD entering multiple support/resistance range (1.1550-1.17) and DAX topping


EUR/USD (1.1695) is entering the long term key range of resistance support 1.1550-1.1700 :

  • 1.1715 was the August 2015 Top.

  • 1.1616 was the May 2016 Top.

  • 1.1550 was the Novemberr 2017 Bottom.

1.15 target mentionned in the April 12th post is in sight BUT a (big) corrective bounce could take place any time from the abovementionned  key levels . Down trend remains nevertheless in place. 


DAX : 13200 Target mentionned in the May 2d post have been reached yesterday…

Not a good sign to see DAX correcting lower while EUR is weak … MACD Daily shows Bearish signal today ( to be confirmed end of session).



DAX breaking higher


Long term support/resistance breaking higher on DAX ( Thank you EUR/USD ! )

The 12650-12670 ( 2 black lines below) seems to be broken : these levels match with :

1/ July 17 resistance
2/ trigger level for up move in september 17
3/ trigger level for down move in february 18
4/ multiple resistance zone in last 2-3 months

SHOULD DAX NOT REVERSE QUICKLY BELOW 12600 , the move to 13200 initially and higher might be very rapid .


Dax : Levels to watch …


a/ 11500 -11600 ( +/- levels reached overnight on Dax Futures) are KEY level as 1/ top at the end of 2015 2/ levels
that triggered the up move trough 2017 3/ Up trend since bottom at q1 2016 ….

b/ 13000 will cap up reaction for the moment (up trendline since mid 2016) .

– Trading range 11500 – 13000 : Above 13000 more bullish // Below 11500 : Big Danger if crossed.





UBS : Opportunities in European Utilities


UBS  most preferred European Utilities  are E.on /EDF/ Enel/ Engie / Fortum / Gas Natural.

+ & – to invest in the sector :

+ Sector’s return to positive earnings growth (5-7%) + favorable earnings revision + Earnings visibility.
+ Relative valuation vs others sectors.
+ High Dividends in Low Bond Yields environment.
+ Global Energy transition should be beneficial.
– Politics & new regulations .
– Risk = Long rates evolution .
+ « Defensivity « of sector in streched market environment.

Enel , Engie and E.on are the cheapest based on P/E metric.
Engie on P/BV point of view.
Gas Natural based on Dividend.


Stifel : Macro & Portfolio Strategy – January 2018

• Stifel sees a 5% SP500 correction in Q1 for SP500.
• SP500 seen at roughly current levels by EOY = Active investing environment
• Slide 2 for long term forecast !!! (Note that Stifel forecast has been quite correct in the last 6-7 years in this bull market).
• Slides 6 on long rates and SP500.
• US 10 Yields seen at 2.96% eoy

Link to the Stifel Macro & Portfolio Strategy :  Stifel 050118


Naspers as a long term opportunity / cheap exposure to Tencent.


Naspers : Tencent stake worth 160 BLN USD while Naspers market cap on JSE at around 112 BLN USD …
Gap is increasing as Naspers stock price corrected , move mainly due to capital outflows linked to political uncertainties in SA.

All other Naspers stake and businesses are valued « negatively » considering Tencent current price !! …  2 solutions : 1/ Tencent price at some point will collapse.
2/ Gap valuation will close in the future via Naspers stock price adjusting . Anyway , buffer at current price is VERY VERY LARGE .

Stock has corrected 22 % from 4100 to 3200 (top to bottom) – see chart below – :  we are at interesting  long term entry levels at current price or better at october
trigger levels  (see green line on chart) around 3000 ZAR which should act as strong support.


UBS Target price … ZAR 5250 (Today ZAR 3290)