Gold Technicals : Bullish as long as price > USD 1280

 

Gold Price goes on with its Higher lows marks since 2 1/2 years.

Last week bottom in the 1280 area and bounce from there forms the 5th higher low (see green ellipse) since early 2016 and should this action continue , Gold price will test again the long term resistance in the USD 1360-1380 zone.

Bullish Long Term .

Bullish Short term as long as 1280 holds … for a retest of USD 1360.

 

 

Stifel : Macro & Portfolio Strategy – January 2018

• Stifel sees a 5% SP500 correction in Q1 for SP500.
• SP500 seen at roughly current levels by EOY = Active investing environment
• Slide 2 for long term forecast !!! (Note that Stifel forecast has been quite correct in the last 6-7 years in this bull market).
• Slides 6 on long rates and SP500.
• US 10 Yields seen at 2.96% eoy

Link to the Stifel Macro & Portfolio Strategy :  Stifel 050118

 

Gold at a short term bottom ? See 1/ Market positioning 2/ Seasonality 3/ Trend technicals

 

1/ Following commitment of traders report, large speculators have largely cut their long positions from above 200000 contracts to below
100000 which tended to signal in the past 3 years a bottom was in sight . (1st chart)

2/ Gold seasonality (2d chart) : we are exiting a bearish seasonal period for gold ( -2.5% in average between september and december in last 10 years )
and entering into a more positive period (+6.5% in average between end of december into march in last 10 years, and positive 70% of time )

3/ MACD is about to offer a positive break up : See positive outcome of such breakups in Dec16 March17 May17 July17 . Only in the bearish seasonal period
MACD positive signals did not turned positive but rather neutral .(3rd chart)

 

 

Source : Barchart.com

Source : Stockcharts .com

 

Source : Stockcharts .com

 

 

 

Gold Miners ETF (GDX) : Breakout above USD 23

 

GDX recently broke the down trendline (purple) above USD 23 . This could prove to be a strong signal as long as above USd 23 prices are maintained and Gold prices also ends with cleanly breaking the USD 1300 level ( 3rd test since April).  Continuation of US equities market – so far tiny with SP500 down 2.50% – correction initiated 10 days ago might be the trigger for Gold finally surpassing the USD 1300 key level.

Short term, flattening 50 days and 200 days MA + Purple TL will act as support in the USD 22-23 area.

 

 

GDX (Right Scale) vs Gold Price (Left Scale)

 

 

UBS Technical View on Markets – 21/03/17

 

US markets – Break of SP500 2350  targets 2280 -2300 / Worst case 2240  // Sharp move but short in time 1 or 2 weeks.

Oils stocks basing and turning bullish.

Buy US Financials after pullback.

US yields will pull back short term  : Short term Top around 2.60% 10y in place // See 3% in H2 2017 .

Major top in USD in place / UBS sees DXY at 92 in 2018 from 100 now.

Bearish USD so bullish Commodities, Gold, EM, Oil .

Big move in Gold within 12 months minimun target 1700 USd after USD 1375 break.

European, stocks : Buy Dax on pullback at around 11500 and Eurostoxx50 3200 as  max retracement so buying opportunity in  3200 -3300 range.

 

 

 

 

Gold (USD 1240/oz) update

 

Market patterns repeat themselves over-and-over in the same way history tends to repeat itself . Why so ? Markets are influenced by investor supply and demand for an asset, by investors fear and greed and so by human behaviour.  Does human behaviour not repeat itself too over-and-over? QED

I show you here below an interesting pattern developping in Gold price that mirrors action early 2016 (see the 2 red ellipses) :    1/ Bottom followed by a crossing of the descending 50 days MA     2/ Reaction down to retest the stabilizing 50 days MA    3/ Another move up (recently to USd 1246) followed by a short move down (Recently below 1220)  4/ Move up again : in January last year this move after crossing the 1130+/- previous interim high triggered a 15% gain in a very short period to 1264 and even more thereafter . For now let ‘s keep a close watch to USD 1246 previous interim high and see if same kind of price action would follow should this level be overtaken … I suspect YES.

 

 

 

 

Q4 2016 InvestorID Blog Posts REVIEW : USDJPY / EURUSD / GBPUSD / APPLE / SP500 / NIKKEI / GOLD / DAX

October 6th post : USD/JPY 

Forex : Dollar higher across the board // USDJPY

October 10th post : EUR/USD

EUR/USD : Warning for more downside if quote below 1,11 persists

October 19th post : GBP/USD

GBP Update // Current 1,2290 // (Partial) Take profit for shorts.

October 25th post : Apple

Apple earnings tonight : Exp. USD 1,65/share

November 7th post : SP500

One Day before election – Markets bouncing – Virt.Portfolio : Add DAX & US BIOTECH ETF (1)

November 17th post : NIKKEI 

Nikkei breaking on the upside – Virt.Portfolio

November 23rd post : GOLD

Gold breaks the important USD 1200 support …

December 7th post : DAX

Dax update : If break of 10800 is confirmed, short term targets are in the 11400-11800 range.

 

Virt.Portfolio : Closed Trades during Q4

Bristol Meyers Squibb stopped  on Oct.10th                 – Loss 10%

USO (Oil tracker) closed on Oct.11th                              – Profit 6,5%

Apple closed on  Oct.25th                                                 – Profit 20,43%

UBS Turbo Put NDX closed – Nov.2d & 3rd                 – Profit 41,83%

iShares Eurostoxx 600 Banks closed on Nov.28th     –  Profit 17,55%

ETf Dax Daily 2X  closed on Dec 15th                            – Profit 18,40%

Gold breaks the important USD 1200 support …

  • Gold Strongly negatively correlated to USD ( See 2d chart below ).
  • Gold strongly negatively correlated to US (and global) long term yields.
  • Inflation risks do not play any role … for the time being.
USD 1200 support gives away and if prices does not go back quickly above this level/stabilizes at current level (USD1190) more pressure on the downside to USD 1150 – 1100 range  might be expected.

Gold crossing the USD 1200 support :

gold-crosses-1200

Strong negative correlation between Gold price and USD especially since US election : Today EUR/USD at 1,0550 and USD/JPY at 112,40 .. USD INDEX AT MULTI YEAR HIGH

gold-eurusd-correlation

 

 

Virtual Portfolio Update – November 10th 2016 – Portfolio Up 13,98% vs Benchmark up 8,30% // OverPerf. 5,68%

  • Silver tracker was bought at USD 17,86, yesterday’s opening.
  • No limit reached for XLV (Healthcare Tracker) and IBB (Nasdaq Biotech tracker) buy orders ; those of you who followed advice to buy IBB without following (my) advice to place a limit could have booked today a profit of 14 to 15% in 3 days … Markets remain very volatile , we keep limits as they are.
  • The 2X Daily Dax was bought at the 218,75 modified limit.
  • Second half of Gold position was bought at USD 1302,25 for an average price of USD 1286,12.

Virt.Portfolio Open positions :

virt-portf-open-positions-101116

US Election : The day after

  • An “unknown” has been removed : The President is known .
  • + Big hopes in term of growth outlook.
  • + Trump President to be more pragmatic vs populist Trump candidate.
  • …Global Equity rally against all odds from before election : Looks overdone but technicals are to be watched for break up/down confirmations.
  • Financial & Healtcare rallying the most (Regulations & Yield curve steepening )
  • Industrials 3rd best sector (Big Infrastructure spending expected).
  • Promised tax cuts to favour US companies in general.
  • Metals up.
  • USD (more stimulus = inflation risk = more fed hikes)  & Commodities currencies up.
  • Fear of more inflation linked to fiscal stimulus/tax cuts.
  • + Rising trade barriers is also inflationnary (supply side shock).
  • + Fear of more Bonds issue linked to increased deficit.
  • + Fear of a less independant FED / Yellen to resign ?
  • … Bond markets sell-off : 10Y treasury > 2% / more pain to come ?
  • .. depends on stimulus size ..House republicans are fiscally conservative!!
  • Risk : If too large deficits expected from policies put in place , bond yields could skyrocket and kill the growth induced by new policy .
  • Uncertainty to persist : Time lag before new administration discloses its real plans.

Stocks Climb With Metals as Trump Win Revitalizes Growth Outlook

 

Bond-Market Inflation Outlook Picks Up After Trump Victory

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/bond-market-inflation-outlook-picks-up-after-trump-victory

 

 

 

Trump election : Risk off period ahead – Volatility – Polling institutes // Virt.Portfolio Action

The US election outcome more than likely will create more uncertainty for equities, bond markets and global trade going forward . We definitely enter a risk-off and volatile period. Not all sectors are equally positionned to potentially benefit from measures announced by Donald Trump in his program . Pharma, Defense, Steel , Construction, infrastructure in general are amongst the sectors that should perform better RELATIVELY SPEAKING ( I insist on last 2 words !!).

Indices support levels on a closing basis :

  • SP500 : 2080 – See Nov.7th post.
  • DAX  : 10250 – See Nov.3rd post.
  • Nasdaq 100 : 4650 – See Nov.3rd post.

Virt. Portfolio Action :

  • The ETF Dax Daily Long 2 X has been bought at EUR 218,75 Limit yesterday PM.
  • iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) : New limit at 257 Eur was missed by a little – Session Low  258,27 / Session High 265. The healthcare sector as a whole is welcoming the Clinton non-election : Preopening is at 277,25 (+6%). We are not going to chase the stock at such level but given the expected volatility to come we  nevertheless adapt the limit to 265,50 . Why 265,50? The reason is that a gap will form at today’s opening compared to yesterday sclosing at 265 . Gaps are filled in around 80% of cases.
  • In order to protect the portfolio against uncertainty and risk-off period to come we add traditional safe haven vehicles which are GOLD and SILVER :
  • 1/ We buy the second half of Gold position @ current price (13:15 CET) of 1302,25.
  • 2/ We buy 1 Unit in SLV the Silver Tracker quoted in NY. Limit at 18,05 USD. The trend is up and, 200 days MA is support, 50 Days MA reversing up.

slv091116

XLV – Health care sector tracker Buy 1 Unit at yesterday’s closing price of 68,40. This is a very low limit considering the preopening price which is currently at 70,50. We will try here to benefit from market volatility to enter this unloved sector year to date – see rationale above and in the last post.

xlv

After Brexit failures, polling institures definitely lost all their credibility …..

polls-before-election***********CLICK TO CHARTS TO ENLARGE******************

Gold sharply down @ 1287 , stops selling activated .

Stronger USD and more upbeat US economic data have brought gold prices to around USD 1305 per ounce where stop selling orders were triggered and accelerated the move down.

Should the move stop around current level , in fact in the  USD 1280-1300 range, this MIGHT  represent a good entry point for long term buyers but one must be clear that the crossing of the USD 1280 level would see a continuation of the selloff. In order to reverse the damage to the technical picture of Gold Chart a quick bounce above USD 1305 is needed.

BUY GDX – GDXJ – NEM – ABX on a bounce above USD 1305. DO NOT buy if the current move down is not quickly reversed.

gold-041016                                       Click on chart to enlarge

Silver is also sharply down (-3% @ USD 18,30) but still holds June supports at around USD 18.