EUR/USD : Targets reached / Time to be Neutral on EUR & Very Short Term bearish.

I refer here to January 12th post « EUR/USD  : Triple Bottom ?  »  in which i wrote :

« EUR/USD outlook starts to improve and the 1.0450-1.0600 might be a good level to buy EUR in USD portfolios / hedge USD in non USD portfolios. i believe one can refocus on targets in the 1.10-1.13 area especially should the 1.0650 50days MA be broken. »

EURUSD trades today around 1.1250 , in the upper part of target range mentionned in January . Some pause is likely due ; the move has been quick since first round of France election and traders sentiment towards Euro ( DSI see Daily Sentiment Index on trade-future.com) is  becoming extreme at 75%. Last such extremes – 86% in August 2015 & 78% in May 2016 – lead to 10% and 5% reversal reaction respectively .

1.0950 – 1.10 are the very short term target and 1.08-1.085 should act as base for further progress mid term .. if these latter  levels are reached again which i am not sure of.

On the up side a clear break of 1.1350 would propel the EUR higher to test 2015 & 2016 Highs at 1.16 / 1.17.

In a nutshell : Short term « risk/chance » to 1.0850 -1.1000 followed by more upside to 1.16-1.17 later this year.

 

USD Index : DSI index is at 5 % , the more extreme bearish reading on USd in the last 3 years which speaks for a USD positive reaction versus other major currencies like GBP (current 1.2950) ,  JPY current 111) and CHF ( Current 0.9720)

 

Tactical Portfolio Update – April 29th 2017 – Performance +17,32%

Trades since last update dated April 17th :

April 18th : USO / WTI Oil tracker – Take profit limit reached at opening on April 18th @ USD 11 – Plus 7,33% in 1 month – April closing @ USD 10,24.

April 18th : Take profit limit reached on Coeur Mining @ USD 9,85 – Bought @ USD 8,12 1 month ago.

April 19th : Take profit limit reached on Easy Jet @ GBp 1090p – Return of 23%+ including dividend.

April 25th : Stop Loss at 1 EUR reached on NDX put certificate. See April 25th post « NDX no sign of tiring » … US markets broke out and continued higher… a hedge for nothing …

April 25th : Buy 0,5 unit in the CITI Turbo Call Cac 40 KO 4151 @ EUR 11,52 – See same date post.

 

Tactical Portfolio : Current holdings

Tactical Portfolio : Closed positions

 

Q4 2016 Virt.Portfolio Closed trades REVIEW

Virt.Portfolio : Closed Trades during Q4

Bristol Meyers Squibb stopped  on Oct.10th                 – Loss 10%

USO (Oil tracker) closed on Oct.11th                              – Profit 6,5%

Apple closed on  Oct.25th                                                 – Profit 20,43%

UBS Turbo Put NDX closed – Nov.2d & 3rd                 – Profit 41,83%

iShares Eurostoxx 600 Banks closed on Nov.28th     –  Profit 17,55%

ETf Dax Daily 2X  closed on Dec 15th                            – Profit 18,40%

Q4 2016 InvestorID Blog Posts REVIEW : USDJPY / EURUSD / GBPUSD / APPLE / SP500 / NIKKEI / GOLD / DAX

October 6th post : USD/JPY 

Forex : Dollar higher across the board // USDJPY

October 10th post : EUR/USD

EUR/USD : Warning for more downside if quote below 1,11 persists

October 19th post : GBP/USD

GBP Update // Current 1,2290 // (Partial) Take profit for shorts.

October 25th post : Apple

Apple earnings tonight : Exp. USD 1,65/share

November 7th post : SP500

One Day before election – Markets bouncing – Virt.Portfolio : Add DAX & US BIOTECH ETF (1)

November 17th post : NIKKEI 

Nikkei breaking on the upside – Virt.Portfolio

November 23rd post : GOLD

Gold breaks the important USD 1200 support …

December 7th post : DAX

Dax update : If break of 10800 is confirmed, short term targets are in the 11400-11800 range.

 

Virt.Portfolio : Closed Trades during Q4

Bristol Meyers Squibb stopped  on Oct.10th                 – Loss 10%

USO (Oil tracker) closed on Oct.11th                              – Profit 6,5%

Apple closed on  Oct.25th                                                 – Profit 20,43%

UBS Turbo Put NDX closed – Nov.2d & 3rd                 – Profit 41,83%

iShares Eurostoxx 600 Banks closed on Nov.28th     –  Profit 17,55%

ETf Dax Daily 2X  closed on Dec 15th                            – Profit 18,40%

Virtual Portfolio Update – December 16th 2016 – Portfolio Up 14,76% vs Benchmark up 14,10% // OverPerf. 0,66%

ETF Daily Dax Long 2X was sold on Dec.15th at the EUR 259 limit (roughly equivalent to 11400 Dax level ) . It was bought on Nov 8th at EUR 218,75 so we book a 18%+ profit .

 

The UBS SP500 Put 2354 was bought at EUR 0,83 (Equivalent to SP500 at 2267) on Dec.14th.

 

Virt. Portfolio as of Dec.16th 22:00 CET

Virtual Portfolio Update – November 4th 2016 – Portfolio Up 13,18% vs Benchmark up 4,16% // OverPerf. 9,02%

The second half of Nasdaq 100 put was sold yesterday @ our 2,70 Limit – See Below Exchange price yesterday and NDX 100 Chart – .  With the day before sale @ 2,28 EUR for first half position , we have an average sale price at 2,49 EUR for a total profit of 139% on this position that represented only 1,5% of PF (0,3 Unit) – See October 7th post for explanation and rationale for taking this position.

Weekly review :

Equities markets have started to price the « Trump » risk since last friday and the notification by FBI to the Congress on new information potentially damaging to Hillary Clinton in the email case. On top of that the earnings season for US companies is not as rosy as expected especially in terms of guidance for the next quarters. As expected Fed did hold on rates but a hike is nearly a given for the December meeting as per current market expectations.

In this context, our benchmarks are down 2% (SP500) and 4,13 % for (Eurostoxx50) , an average of 3,05% decline on the week. Weekly indices performances here  :   http://www.investorid.one/indices-perfs-051116/

Seven out of ten of our holdings did perform better than the benchmarks : 5 were positive (Nasdaq Put + 58% / GDX +4,97% / Easy Jet +3,15% / Gold +2,34% / Twitter +2,05% ) and 2 (EU Retail Tracker & EM tracker ) negative but better than benchmark. The Japan tracker, Eurostoxx50 & Eu Banks tracker (-3,67 -4,13 & -5,21%) underperformed the benchmark.

virt-portf-open-positions-031116

Closed Positions :

virt-portf-closed-positions-041116

Second Half of Nasdaq 100 put sold on Friday @ 2,70 EUR based on Tech index touching lowest « stopping points » around 4650 – 4660 mentionned in Thursday’s post :

ndx100-put-execution-270

Nasdaq 100 on September low support :

ndx100-stopping-pt-4650

 

 

 

Review & Follow up of Investment ideas posted in October – Virt. Portfolio

Oct 25th. : « Sell Apple @ 117,90 » : Stock opened today @ USD 111,23 i.e.   5,65% lower than the sale price.

Oct 24th. : « Buy EasyJet @ 935p » : Stock opened today @ 959p i.e. 2,5% higher compared to Oct.24 while FTSE100 is around 2% DOWN.

Oct 19th : « Buy Gold @ 1270 » : Current price  USD 1305, UP 2,75%.

Oct 19th : « Buy GDX @ 24,5250 » : Current price USD 25,75 , UP 5%.

Oct 11th :  » Take profit in USO @ 11,64 USD » : Current price USD 10,24 i.e. 13% lower compared to the sale price. Crude Oil which was in its strong USD 51-52 resistance zone quotes now around USD 45,30.

Oct 7th :  » Buy Turbo PUT certificate on Nasdaq 100 @ EUR 1,04″ : Certificate currently quotes @ EUR 1,85 , UP 78% .