DT 3 – November 7th 2019 – Buy iPath® Series B S&P 500® VIX Short-Term Futures™ ETN (VXX) with Limit 18.85 USD – TODAY

 

  • VXX About to reverse (MACD).

  • RSI bouncing from Below 30.

  • “Kind of ” Market hedge  as acts in reverse mode vs SP500.

  •  S&P500 at the most overbought level since 1 Year. Reaction is nearing ! 

  • ONLY for very short term – See Link below “How Does VXX work? “

 

 

How Does VXX works ?

 

 

Derivative Trade 1 – Buy K-O certificate Comba Natgas Basis Price USD 1.9150 K-O price USD 2,00 – Buy Price 0.70 EUR (14:45 CET)

 

  •  Trade based on NatGas Seasonality.

  •  NatGas soared 8 times on 10 (green lines below) in last 10 years during period Mid-October to Mid-December.

  •  Returns from Bottom to Top : 2018 54% / 2017 40% / 2016 53% / 2015 41% / 2014 32.5% / 2013 88% / 2010 48%

  •  Certificate Price 0.70 EUR // Natgas December Future 2.68 USD.

  •  K-O level is below any price touched since May 2016 which reduces the risk of the trade.

  • RISK : Near Total loss if Natgas price collapses below USD 2,00.

 

Source : Stockcharts.com

 

More details on certifcate  on   :   https://www.zertifikate.commerzbank.de/

 

 

WTI Oil (USD 70.71) : A correction has started …

Tensions in Middle East, tough US positioning versus Iran and Venezuela pushed oil prices further up in recent weeks .

Saudi announcement of a potential boost in oil supply is reversing price action and WTI @ USD 60-62 could be seen again very quickly .On top of this, extreme bullish positioning of futures traders might exacerbate the move down short term.

 

 

Gold Technicals : Bullish as long as price > USD 1280

 

Gold Price goes on with its Higher lows marks since 2 1/2 years.

Last week bottom in the 1280 area and bounce from there forms the 5th higher low (see green ellipse) since early 2016 and should this action continue , Gold price will test again the long term resistance in the USD 1360-1380 zone.

Bullish Long Term .

Bullish Short term as long as 1280 holds … for a retest of USD 1360.

 

 

EURUSD entering multiple support/resistance range (1.1550-1.17) and DAX topping

 

EUR/USD (1.1695) is entering the long term key range of resistance support 1.1550-1.1700 :

  • 1.1715 was the August 2015 Top.

  • 1.1616 was the May 2016 Top.

  • 1.1550 was the Novemberr 2017 Bottom.

1.15 target mentionned in the April 12th post is in sight BUT a (big) corrective bounce could take place any time from the abovementionned  key levels . Down trend remains nevertheless in place. 

 

DAX : 13200 Target mentionned in the May 2d post have been reached yesterday…

Not a good sign to see DAX correcting lower while EUR is weak … MACD Daily shows Bearish signal today ( to be confirmed end of session).

 

 

DAX breaking higher

 

Long term support/resistance breaking higher on DAX ( Thank you EUR/USD ! )

The 12650-12670 ( 2 black lines below) seems to be broken : these levels match with :

1/ July 17 resistance
2/ trigger level for up move in september 17
3/ trigger level for down move in february 18
4/ multiple resistance zone in last 2-3 months

SHOULD DAX NOT REVERSE QUICKLY BELOW 12600 , the move to 13200 initially and higher might be very rapid .