Gold at a short term bottom ? See 1/ Market positioning 2/ Seasonality 3/ Trend technicals

 

1/ Following commitment of traders report, large speculators have largely cut their long positions from above 200000 contracts to below
100000 which tended to signal in the past 3 years a bottom was in sight . (1st chart)

2/ Gold seasonality (2d chart) : we are exiting a bearish seasonal period for gold ( -2.5% in average between september and december in last 10 years )
and entering into a more positive period (+6.5% in average between end of december into march in last 10 years, and positive 70% of time )

3/ MACD is about to offer a positive break up : See positive outcome of such breakups in Dec16 March17 May17 July17 . Only in the bearish seasonal period
MACD positive signals did not turned positive but rather neutral .(3rd chart)

 

 

Source : Barchart.com

Source : Stockcharts .com

 

Source : Stockcharts .com