Naspers as a long term opportunity / cheap exposure to Tencent.


Naspers : Tencent stake worth 160 BLN USD while Naspers market cap on JSE at around 112 BLN USD …
Gap is increasing as Naspers stock price corrected , move mainly due to capital outflows linked to political uncertainties in SA.

All other Naspers stake and businesses are valued « negatively » considering Tencent current price !! …  2 solutions : 1/ Tencent price at some point will collapse.
2/ Gap valuation will close in the future via Naspers stock price adjusting . Anyway , buffer at current price is VERY VERY LARGE .

Stock has corrected 22 % from 4100 to 3200 (top to bottom) – see chart below – :  we are at interesting  long term entry levels at current price or better at october
trigger levels  (see green line on chart) around 3000 ZAR which should act as strong support.


UBS Target price … ZAR 5250 (Today ZAR 3290)




Gold at a short term bottom ? See 1/ Market positioning 2/ Seasonality 3/ Trend technicals


1/ Following commitment of traders report, large speculators have largely cut their long positions from above 200000 contracts to below
100000 which tended to signal in the past 3 years a bottom was in sight . (1st chart)

2/ Gold seasonality (2d chart) : we are exiting a bearish seasonal period for gold ( -2.5% in average between september and december in last 10 years )
and entering into a more positive period (+6.5% in average between end of december into march in last 10 years, and positive 70% of time )

3/ MACD is about to offer a positive break up : See positive outcome of such breakups in Dec16 March17 May17 July17 . Only in the bearish seasonal period
MACD positive signals did not turned positive but rather neutral .(3rd chart)



Source :

Source : Stockcharts .com


Source : Stockcharts .com