Tactical Portfolio Update – April 29th 2017 – Performance +17,32%

Trades since last update dated April 17th :

April 18th : USO / WTI Oil tracker – Take profit limit reached at opening on April 18th @ USD 11 – Plus 7,33% in 1 month – April closing @ USD 10,24.

April 18th : Take profit limit reached on Coeur Mining @ USD 9,85 – Bought @ USD 8,12 1 month ago.

April 19th : Take profit limit reached on Easy Jet @ GBp 1090p – Return of 23%+ including dividend.

April 25th : Stop Loss at 1 EUR reached on NDX put certificate. See April 25th post “NDX no sign of tiring” … US markets broke out and continued higher… a hedge for nothing …

April 25th : Buy 0,5 unit in the CITI Turbo Call Cac 40 KO 4151 @ EUR 11,52 – See same date post.

 

Tactical Portfolio : Current holdings

Tactical Portfolio : Closed positions

 

CAC40 : Significant Long Term Break Out

The French Index celebrated Macron Victory in first round of election with a quite significant breakout as shown in chart below. The red downtrend line that connects major tops in 2000, 2007 and 2015 has been broken the day after the election first round : This is a significant move and will remain so as long as market does not retrace this positive move in the short run which i do  not believe will happen at this stage.

One can put in place a tactical trade set up with limited risk here : Buy the french market – ETF, individual stocks, certificates, .. – and place SL below the former resistance which lies around 5150. Risk of around 3%.

ACTION TACTICAL PORTFOLIO :  Buy CITI Turbo Call Knock Out 4151  Certificate  / Leverage at current price of 11,53 EUR is 4,59  (1% investment gives you a 4,59 exposure to CAC40 )- ISIN DE000CX7L4F3 . Action taken : Buy 0,50 unit at current price of 11,52 EUR -CAC40 base level 5275- / Buy another 0,5 unit in case of market short term consolidation around 5180 -5200 – Limit at 10,75 EUR valid end of week.

 

 

 

US Markets update : SP500 Break out – NDX 100 No sign of Tiring

 

SP500 : Main US indice broke out (See red down moving line) yesterday of its nearly 2 months consolidation phase initiated after March 1st all time high. Chances are great now that SP500 will test and beat previous highs at 2400  . MACD daily is turning positive. Strong supports (Green Channel) remain untested in the 2280-2300 zone .

Companies fundamentals also support current positive market momentum with earnings growth of 11% announced so far for last quarter (77% of SP500 companies reported at this day ) – see below table.

 

 

 

Nasdaq 100

All time high again on NDX 100 . Strong momentum goes on on Tech Companies with only a limited consolidation in recent weeks . Trend indicator turns positive . A big gap occured yesterady in the aftermath of french election which is bullish unless if case it would be closed within 1 or 2 days .

 

 

 

UK : May calls for election in June ….. GBP bounces above 1.28

 

Theresa May unexpectedly announced early elections yesterday : Forex markets pushed GBP at 6 months high as this is seen as a move for UK Prime Minister to secure political unity and reduce the risk of a much anticipated and GBP bearish “Hard Brexit” . Deutsche Bank  considers this early election as a complete “game changer” for Sterling and immediately cancelled its bearish view on the currency. UBS on its side sees the Pound at 1.36 versus USD in the year.

 

The below chart is an update of one posted in October 2016   ( link here : Post Dated Oct.19th 2016 ) where i mentionned that short term reactions would be limited to the 1.26 -1.28 range which happened 3 times so far. Yesterday’s move to above 1.28 brings GBP one step further with a clear (if confirmed) break of the 200D MA . Technical pattern is quite bullish with a break of july and august bottoms and of previouly mentionned tops in the 1.26-1.28 range. Short to mid term Bullish as long as above 1.26 is maintained .  Let’ s look now on the long term chart …

… The very long term  chart is an update of one posted on October 7th  2016, the day of GBP flash crash . We can clearly see the bottoming process that took place in last months with higher lows . The conclusion remains the same i.e a clean break above 1.32-1.33 on a monthly basis is needed to become again long term Sterling bullish .

 

 

Tactical Portfolio Update – April 17th 2017 – Performance +16,92%

Trades since last update :

February 27th : Sale of iShares Nasdaq Biotech  (Link : http://schrts.co/ezRRVX  )   at limit of USD 298 for a 12,24% profit in less than 3 months . Price thereafter briefly traded above the USD 300 cap and is now at USD 290.

March 3rd : Hedging : Buy 0,4 Unit (2% pf) i Citi NDX put Certif at 1,97 EUR . Current 1,56 EUR / -8,32% (calculated on 1 unit position equivalent)

March 8th : Sale of XLV – US Health Care tracker (Link : http://schrts.co/9xxaX9  )– at USD 75,05 for a 11,20% profit in 3 months + . Tracker is now trading at USD 73,88.

March 8th : Sale of iShares Hedged Japan ETF (Link : http://schrts.co/vMwA7q) at USD 28,56 for a 15,39% profit in around 6 months . Tracker closed last week at USD 27,08.

March 17th :  Buy of Coeur Mining – CDE – (Link : http://schrts.co/3SeYmW ) at USD 8,12 . Current price : USD 9,82  / +20,94%.

March 17th : Buy of WTI Oil Tracker (USO) at USD 10,37 . (Link : http://schrts.co/3SeYmW ) Current Price : USD 11,13 / +7,33%

March 17th : Sale of iShares Mexico ETF  – EWW – (Link :  http://schrts.co/tDo2us  ) at USD 49,52 for a profit of 15,49% in less than 2 months . EWW is currently trading at USD 51,19.

March 21st : Buy of Gazprom at USD 4,43 – Current Price USD 4,3750 // – 1,24%.

 

See in red in table below TP and SL levels updates.

Tactical Portfolio :

Closed Trades :