+4,60 % is SP500 performance since November 9th with financials and cyclicals as star performers …
…the major part of the up move was concentrated in the first 5 weeks till mid december . As one can see below, since then the market as a whole is flat (+0,07%) and has consolidated between 2140 and 2175.
After a consolidation comes a substantial move up or down . Given following current technicals – 1/ Resistance and no closing above 2275. 2/ bearish divergences RSI and MACD versus price. 3/ Current level is very near the 9 months upward trend 4/ contrarian high bullish sentiment – my favoured scenario is a trigger (if close below 2135) on the downside with targets in the 2125 -2175 area. Any close above 2275 would be more positive for a test of 2310-15 . So 5 to 6% potential for the downside versus 2% on the upside.
The less likely scenario of a sustained (more than 1 or 2 days ) move above 2320 would be very bullish.