Trump’s inauguration : A trigger for SP500 ? Watch a close > 2275 for upside and < 2134 for downside.

 

+4,60 % is  SP500 performance since November 9th with financials and cyclicals as star performers …

 

…the major part of the up move was concentrated in the first 5 weeks till mid december . As one can see below, since then the market as a whole is flat (+0,07%)  and has consolidated between 2140 and 2175.

 

 

After a consolidation comes a substantial move up or down . Given following current technicals – 1/ Resistance and no closing above 2275.  2/ bearish divergences RSI and MACD versus price.         3/ Current level is very near the 9 months upward trend 4/ contrarian high bullish sentiment –  my favoured scenario is a trigger (if close below 2135) on the downside with targets in the 2125 -2175 area. Any close above 2275 would be more positive for a test of 2310-15 . So 5 to 6% potential for the downside versus 2% on the upside.

The less likely scenario of a sustained (more than 1 or 2 days ) move above 2320 would be very bullish.

 

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