Trump effect on US long rates : A good entry point ? Yes but Sell STOP above 2,50%.

10 Years Treasuries from 1,80% before election to > 2,30% today.

This move represents around 5% in price on the bond price .


10 Years Treasuries LONG term chart :

Yields are back to the top of the downtrend line that contained (around 6 touching points) yields surges in last 10 Years : The 2,35-2,40 range is significant barrier to the upside .

Bonds markets are extremely oversold at current levels and I do not believe these resistances (2,40 ultimately 2,50%) will be broken at this stage . If despite of strong resistance 2,50% is broken on the upside more bonds investors would take the exit door and quickly drive yields in the 3 % area.

In this latter case, equities markets would definitely  start to be vulnerable.

10 Years Treasuries minus 2 Years Treasuries :

Curve steepening since election : spread increase of 25 BPs since election and even 50 BPs since september shows market expectation of increased inflation and improved economic outlook and explains strong Financials stocks performances recently.