Virt Portfolio update

Action : Buy 0,3 unit (1,50% of portfolio) in below KO certificate at 1,04 eur – Put Nasdaq 100-  as a hedge / protection of portfolio. Leverage is 40 so it is a proxy to « protect » 60% (1,50% x 40) of portfolio .  ONLY USE THIS INSTRUMENT AS A HEDGE .. Becomes wotrthless should NDX 100 quotes above 4975.

ubs-certifRationale :

  • Nasdaq100 made an all time new high 2 weeks ago at 4895 and never managed since then to decisively break this high and the uptrend line originated in August 2015 (purple line).
  • No close since then above the 4880 level –> Strong resistance in the 4880-4890 area.
  • Large 20% move since after Brexit 3 months ago without any lasting down reaction.
  • Seasonality is historically bearish during first half of october.
  • Bearish Divergences between RSI/Macd and price.
  • If red TL is broken acceleration on the downside is likely.

When are we wrong ? A closing price avove 4895-4900 that could happen as early as today should employment numbers in US be on the lower range of expectations which would definitely kill any possibility of higher US rates for the November Fed meeting .

 

ndx-100-1y-071016