Nasdaq100 is testing its 10year highs reached in December 2015 at 4739.
As you can see on the chart , Nasdaq is at overbought level (RSI) that matched in the last 2 years with market tops that were followed by 4 to 20 % decline .
2 scenarios :
- 1/ Tests at 4740 fails and due to overbought situation market falls hard – 5 to 10% .
We will check the daily MACD for reversal confirmation , wichis still bullish at this time . Preferred scenario.
- 2/ Tests of 4740 level succeed and one can see a maximum potential of 2% in the short run to test all time highs from March 2000 at 4815+/-.
The only difference compared to SP500 is that MACD already turned south yesterday and indicates risk of downside.